Austin’s housing market shows steady supply pressure with sluggish demand, keeping buyers in the driver’s seat.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for September 25, 2025.

The Austin real estate market continues to display a cautious balance between elevated inventory and muted demand. As of Thursday, September 25, 2025, active residential listings stand at 16,839, which is 14.5% higher than this time last year. While inventory has eased slightly from the June high of 18,146, the market remains supply-heavy. Nearly six out of ten homes on the market have had at least one price reduction, reinforcing the current buyer-friendly environment.

Market Overview

This September update confirms that Austin’s housing supply is still running ahead of demand. Pending contracts sit at 4,087 compared to 4,249 last year, marking a 3.8% decline. The Activity Index—a measure of how active the market is relative to inventory—has slipped to 19.5%, down nearly 13% year-over-year. Historically, the Austin area averages stronger engagement, but today’s numbers highlight a slower pace where buyers can take their time and negotiate harder.

New listing activity is robust, with 40,732 new properties hitting the market year-to-date, up 4% from last year and a striking 22.7% above the long-term average. This influx of new supply has not been met with equal demand, leading to a year-to-date gap of 7,116 more listings than contracts. That imbalance is keeping pressure on prices and lengthening selling timelines.

Housing Prices

The pricing landscape continues to reflect a market correction that began after the May 2022 peak. The average sold price for September is $556,612, nearly $125,000 below peak levels. The median price sits at $430,000, representing a 21.8% decline from the $550,000 peak three years ago. This drop has reset affordability in the region but also created challenges for homeowners who bought at or near peak values.

Tracking prices against long-term appreciation trends gives a sobering forecast. With Austin’s 25-year compound growth rate of 4.79%, it would take an estimated 66 months—or until February 2031—for today’s median value to regain its prior peak of $550,394. That’s assuming steady, uninterrupted growth from this point forward.

Price performance also varies by market tier. The bottom 25% of homes show a 4.6% decline over the past year, while the top 25% have managed modest gains of about 2.5%. This split suggests that higher-end properties are holding value more effectively, while affordable segments continue to see downward pressure from oversupply and affordability constraints.

Regional Trends

Inventory growth has not been uniform across the metro. Austin proper now holds 5.42 months of inventory, up slightly from 5.31 a year ago. Submarkets like Leander (5.52 months) and Liberty Hill (6.86 months) are pushing significantly higher, while Buda (3.43 months) and Kyle (4.01 months) remain tighter. Year-to-date, the Austin metro has seen a 24.4% rise in months of inventory, underscoring just how quickly balance has shifted from sellers to buyers.

The supply-demand mismatch is also reflected in sales per population metrics. From January through September, cumulative closed sales total 22,914—down 4.2% from last year. On a per capita basis, that equates to 897 sales per 100,000 residents, more than 22% below the long-term average. Similarly, sales per agent are lagging, down more than 25% from historic norms. These trends point to a market where volume is spreading thin across a growing base of listings and agents.

List-to-Sale Price Performance

Absorption measures confirm the softness. The absorption rate—the ratio of sales to active listings—sits at just 17.5%. Historically, Austin averages closer to 32%. Anything under 20% signals a buyer’s market, and today’s numbers firmly fall into that category. The Market Flow Score, which gauges turnover speed and demand strength on a 0-to-10 scale, is at 5.56 compared to the long-term 6.60. This reflects a market that is functioning but sluggish, with properties lingering longer and buyers negotiating more aggressively.

Peak Value Trends and Forecast

The Austin housing forecast continues to show that recovery to peak values will not be quick. While new construction still accounts for more than a quarter of pending contracts, resale homes are moving at a slower 16% rate. Builders remain active in offering incentives, but resale sellers must contend with high competition, longer market times, and buyers expecting concessions.

For buyers, this environment presents opportunity. Elevated supply, widespread price drops, and an absorption rate below 20% mean leverage remains firmly in buyers’ hands. For sellers, the challenge is clear: pricing with the market is critical, as waiting for peak values to return could take years, not months. Investors may find selective opportunity, especially in the bottom quartile of the market where discounts remain steep and rental demand continues to support long-term holding strategies.

Conclusion

The September 25, 2025 Austin market update underscores a housing landscape shaped by abundant inventory, cautious demand, and prices still well below their peak. Active listings are elevated, over half of homes have reduced asking prices, and absorption remains muted. Buyers can navigate with patience and confidence, sellers must price competitively, and investors should focus on long-term fundamentals.​